PC market to grow 14% in 2011

Palo Alto, Calif. — The worldwide PC market will achieve year-on-year growth of 14 percent in 2011, according to Canalys. The analyst firm predicts that much of this growth will come from tablet shipments, which will increase to 52 million units worldwide in 2011. Apple is expected to account for more 75 percent of those shipments.

Canalys anticipates that the iPad’s success will continue with the new thinner, lighter and faster iPad 2. This growth also means that “traditional” PC companies, notably Microsoft, Intel and AMD, are likely to lose market share during the year, according to the report.
For every 10 tablets sold this year, Canalys estimates that five netbook or notebook sales will be lost across both consumer and enterprise markets. This trend will be most notable in developed markets, such as the United States, Canada, France, Germany, the UK, the Nordics, Benelux, Australia, and Japan.

“Pads are disrupting the PC refresh cycle in highly penetrated markets,” said Canalys analyst Tim Coulling, in a statement. “Their innovative user experience has captured the imagination of consumers, who are extending the life of their existing hardware, while taking an interest in pads.”

Canalys also sees opportunities for tablets in business and vertical markets such as health care and education.

Canalys expects the notebook PC category to grow nearly 8 percent in 2011, despite the impact of pads, thanks to the ongoing Windows 7 refresh and improving business confidence in the commercial sector. Netbooks will decline by about 13 percent to 34 million units.

The analyst firm also noted that political revolutions and protests in the Middle East and North Africa have brought those markets to a virtual stop, and the recent events in Japan will mean some short-term disruptions to the supply chain, although it will take weeks to fully assess the damage and consequences. Canalys expects that there will likely be a small noticeable impact to global PC shipments.