To empower the EV rollout, John Denslinger suggests switching the focus from car sales to the number of charging stations brought on-line.
EV sales have stalled. Dealer lots are full of unsold EV inventory. Automakers have scaled back EV production and expansion investments. Demand has noticeably shifted to hybrids. What on green earth has happened?
The Federal government threw billions of dollars in subsidies at the auto industry, battery makers and leading-edge technology companies. It offered generous financial inducements to states and municipalities for charging infrastructure. Tax credits were offered to consumers. It enacted provisions for upstream needs such as critical mineral research and a national lab for advanced material R&D. Meanwhile DoE, DoT, DoI and EPA collectively pushed electrification of America by toughening regulations and restrictions on fossil fuel alternatives including transporting, sourcing, mileage standards and export markets served.
Meanwhile, the Federal government’s short-term EV policy remains aggressive: 50 per cent electric new car sales by 2030 supported by a network of 28 million charging points accommodating 30 to 42 million EVs on the road. The 28 million charging ports includes 26 million Level 1/Level 2 residential and workplace ports, 1 million Level 2 public charging ports, and 182,000 publicly accessible DC fast charging ports.
So, how are we doing against the Fed plan? Edison Electric Institute (EEI) now estimates 2030 sales of new EV light-duty vehicles at 5.6 million, only 32 per cent of new car sales. That falls well below the 50 per cent target. A PwC analysis projects only 27 million EVs on the road by 2030 also substantially less than the 30 to 42 million expected. But here is the kicker. PwC also projects that 27 million EVs will require 35 million total charging ports by 2030. The ratio of charging ports/EV is a critical disconnect. The Fed plan averages 0.8 charging ports/EV but PwC clearly shows 1.3 charging ports/EV is actually needed. That would suggest we need significantly more charging capacity than originally thought.
Currently, there are roughly 6,600 DC fast charging stations across the US deploying 28,000 charging ports. The Tesla Supercharger network is by far the largest with 1,600 stations and 17,000 ports. Electrify America, EVgo, and ChargePoint combined add another 7,600 charging ports. The balance comes from a variety of other public and private installations. Unfortunately, the Fed is still absent from the list despite $7.5 billion in funding. As of May 2024, only seven charging stations were operational, a galactic distance from its stated goal of 500,000 EV charging stations by 2030.
Charging remains a disconnect to EV adoption. A 2023 Autolist consumer survey found cost, range and charging logistics were the top three EV buying concerns. If the US is to reach its electrification goals, drivers must feel confident they can charge their EV wherever they go. By all accounts, the Fed can and should do better. Removing bureaucratic hurdles, as well as enabling immediate grid enhancements could certainly speed up installations. Instead of EV tax credits, perhaps financial incentives to residents and workplaces installing Level 2 and DC fast charging ports would be better use of taxpayer money. Lastly, change the EV adoption metric. Rather than emphasizing EV car sales, focus first on the number of charging stations brought on-line. Ample and convenient charging removes a major disconnect to greater EV adoption.