I love playing mind games and decided to pose myself the question are we at peak obsolescence? I’m trying to work out if there is a tipping point where the average component life cycle overlaps average product lifecycle, driving the average price of the average product ever upwards to accommodate immediate and endless redesigns.
As we nudge closer to that point, innovation will undoubtedly kick in. People will spot the vacuum and start designing new technologies and business models that overcome the problem.
Until we reach that point, purchasing professionals must stay vigilant and realise obsolescence isn’t simply an inconvenience, it’s a systemic business risk with a dominant location on the SWOT chart.
While working on this question, I did a risky thing. I decided to design a GPT to ‘risk score’ semiconductor brands: not at a component level but at a strategic company level. Ouch!
My score was based on metrics including: long-term availability; reliable notice periods; effective migration paths; EoL notice frequency; and support cycle duration. I ran this for 20 semiconductor brands and
on a scale of 1 to 10 the worst came in at 7.5 and the best at 3.5.
I refuse to publish the actual results at this point because the data is not fully validated. However, needless to say, the consumer centric brands scored worse than their industrial counterparts.
Looking to the near future expect BoM twins and AI predictive analytics to save the day. The tools I’m currently exploring are truly astounding and will turn this industry inside out.
